Guesses on How Many Times Chris Rock is Gonna Get Bleeped?

Mmmmm….Mustard.

Yeah, I know I was gonna do the televisionwithoutpity thing but that’s been pushed back a week or so for me to bring you: MY OSCAR PREVIEW!!!

Ok, a few notes prior to getting into this: as of today I’ve only seen 3 of the 5 best picture nominees (Sideways, Ray, Million Dollar Baby). I’m planning on seeing The Aviator this weekend before Sunday night. I’m going to miss out on Finding Neverland but let’s face it, even though I’ve heard it’s a very good movie, it’s not gonna win best picture. But for the most part with the individual award below I’ll have to go with what I’ve seen because c’mon, it’d be damn near impossible to see every single movie tied to every single award nomination. Anyways, here we go, in no particular order:

Actor in a Leading Role: Jamie Foxx wins this one easily. The man was fantastic in Ray. Most of the time I tend to not go with the heavy favorite but in this case, give it to him. He might get some competition from DiCaprio but I don’t see any upset in this one. Cheadle is one of the best actors working today and he’ll definitely be back here again. He just needs his breakout role. Depp too. Both these guys will have loads of noms in the future. Eastwood was good but won’t take down Foxx. Paul Giamatti should’ve been in here. He wouldn’t have won, but he was fantastic in Sideways. Also Jim Carrey, best work of his career and he gets nothing for Eternal Sunshine.

Actor in a Supporting Role: Foxx won’t take this as he’s getting the best actor. Clive Owen doesn’t have the momentum to take this. Alan Alda could pull it in but I’ve yet to see his performance. Morgan Freeman could take this and he did do a very good job but honestly, it’s not his best role ever. If he wins it’ll be the Denzel award of the night where he wins in acknowledgement of his past excellent roles (ie Denzel Washington winning for Training Day was really him winning for past roles he got passed by on). Of those I’ve seen I give it to Thomas Haden Church for his excellent performance as the jackass groom-to-be in Sideways.

Actress in a Leading Role: Ok, I never saw Vera Drake but I did hear Imelda Staunton was excellent. I just don’t think it was a big enough movie for her to take it. Annette Bening is the same thing. Catalina Sandino Moreno put in a strong performance in Maria Full of Grace but it was a small foreign language indie flick so she won’t get it. I’m split now on Hilary Swank and Kate Winslet. Both performances were excellent. But I think I’ll go with Winslet on this one as Swank has all the momentum and I think she’ll probably win. But Winslet deserves some recognition for her outstanding performance in a totally under-appreciated film (oooh, foreshadowing).

Actress in a Supporting Role: Only one I’ve seen is Virginia Madsen who was good and I wouldn’t pitch a fit if she won. Natalie Portman in Closer could be a good bet (and with her year, she deserves it. She was amazing in Garden State, the super-under-appreciated film). The other three I’ve heard good things and honestly, this category is completely wide open to who will win. So what the hell, I’ll say Portman for her whole body of work this year (who knew that if it’s not a Star Wars movie, she’s an amazing actress).

Animated Feature Film: The Incredibles, no contest. Shrek 2 was hilarious and a great movie but it’s gonna be dated within 5 to 10 years. Let’s face it, my kids won’t get half the jokes. Incredibles is timeless and I’d love it to win just to stick it to Disney saying, you’re letting Pixar go? Seriously? Shark Tale… what the hell is that doing being nominated. What about some foreign animated movies? Ghost in the Machine 2: Innocence from Japan is supposed to be fantastic.

Art Direction: Haven’t seen a one. So from the trailers I’ll go with Phantom or Lemony Snicket. This is art design, not best movie so it doesn’t matter if the movie wasn’t good with this. Pretty boring category though, don’t see anything eye popping in there.

Cinematography: Again, haven’t seen these though I’m going to give it to House of Flying Daggers. It’s by the same guy who did Hero and from everything I’ve seen it’s every bit as gorgeously shot as that movie was. If Hero hadn’t technically been eligible last year, I guarantee it’d be in this year.

Costume Design: Um, I saw Ray and Troy. Neither of those jumped out at me in the way of costuming. I honestly can’t really say on this one so I’ll give it to Troy if only cause I’d laugh my ass off if that movie actually won an Oscar.

Directing: Honestly, I didn’t really see anything super amazing from MDB, Ray or Sideways, and Vera Drake won’t, so what the hell, give it to Marty. He’s earned it by now. If not both Eastwood or Payne could take it.

Documentary: No idea, but it’ll probably go to Super Size Me.

Documentary Short Subject: ….

Film Editing: I’ll give this one to Million Dollar Baby. The training/fight scenes were cut very well and the stand alone conversation shots were left the perfect length.

Foreign Language: Don’t know, but I see the Sea Inside winning. Lots of buzz.

Makeup: Ok, you’re going to laugh at me but I’m upset with category. No real creativity whatsoever. You want to honestly know what should’ve been nominated? Hellboy. I know, I know, sounds ridiculous. But let’s face it, the makeup on it was terrific, especially in this day and age where everything is just CGI. But that’s the problem with this category. The best makeup jobs done are never any movies that Academy members see. Passion of the Christ? For what, blood and dirt? Lemony Snicket… ok, for Jim Carrey’s nose. But what else? I have no idea about the Sea Inside. So I say nothing for this category.

Music (score): I’m amazed Million Dollar Baby wasn’t nominated. Not because it necessarily deserves it but more because such a big deal was made over Eastwood scoring it himself. I don’t know with this one. Harry Potter was good but it was mostly variations of the first 2 movies. Village wasn’t anything special. I guess of the two I’ve seen I’ll go with Harry Potter. (What about the Incredibles score?)

Music (Song): Only know Accidentally in Love which is good enough for me as it’s the best work Counting Crows has done in a long time and wasn’t just tacked on to the ending credits of the movie like most other songs in this category.

Skipping the two shorts film categories cause I have no clue…

Sound Editing: Didn’t see Polar Express so it’s between Incredibles and Spider-man 2. Spider-man 2 was a great movie, one of the best superhero films of all time, but I didn’t really notice the sound all that much so this one goes to the Incredibles.

Sound Mixing: I give this one to the Incredibles again. To be fair, it is a lot easier to notice sound in animated movies when you know that it’s not real life sounds you’re hearing but rather has to be completely artificial ones inserted into the movie.

Visual Effects: This one I give to Spider-man 2 where the effects were much better than the first one. Harry Potter was also good but not as good. To repeat a past rant: where the hell was Sky Captain in this? It was a revolutionary technique, looked amazing, and yet gets nothing cause it wasn’t a box office smash hit.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): This category is a little hard because I always feel like I should’ve read the book from which it’s adapted to compare but in terms of actual screenplay I’ll go with Sideways from the two I’ve seen. Though to be honest I’d love if Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy won for Before Sunset. Linklater (Slacker, Dazed and Confused, Before Sunrise, Waking Life, School of Rock) has done some amazing work and I think it’s time he gets recognized for it.

Writing (Original Screenplay): Ok, you know that Garden State rant you were waiting for? Here it is: Where in the blue hell is Garden State in this category. Think I’m way off base? Go to the Writer’s Guild Awards site. You’ll notice it was nominated. Hmmm… the Writer’s Guild, who probably know about such things, nominated it and the Academy doesn’t. What a shock. I know it’s not gonna hit a best pic nom. And I know it’s not feasible in the minds of the academy to give any acting noms to it (though from what I heard Portman was actually better in Garden State than in Closer for which she was nominated). But come on, it was a fantastic screenplay, with sharp, witting and poignant writing. A little help here. And the thing is, I don’t even think it should’ve won. My pick here is Eternal Sunshine because this category is for Original Screenplay and they don’t get much more original than Eternal Sunshine. But the nomination should’ve been there. This, along with the Sky Captain gip, are my two biggest issues with the Oscar noms this year.

Ok, here it is: Best Picture

Honestly, Ray doesn’t deserve to be in here. Jamie Foxx was amazing, the cast was amazing, the movie was good. Good movies don’t get Best Picture. Eternal Sunshine should’ve been in here (yes, I think Garden State could’ve but wouldn’t have. Eternal Sunshine did have a chance. It was just released way way way too early to be a contender. The academy has a short memory). Finding Neverland I didn’t see but it’s a tack on nom. They needed a 5^th non-controversial pick to throw in and that’s how this got here. The Aviator can’t say yet, but I don’t see this as being my pick. Too big budget and obvious for my taste. So that comes down to Million Dollar Baby and Sideways. I wouldn’t be upset with either of these two winning. But I’m going with Sideways. Million Dollar Baby was very well done in almost every aspect but honestly, I just didn’t enjoy it as much as Sideways. Sideways maybe a “comedy” but it’s a pretty dark comedy. One man who’s so terrified of accepting the fact that he’s not a young crazy Hollywood movie star that he goes around bragging about his commercial voiceovers and cheating on his fiancée during his bachelor party/trip. The other who is terrified of failure both past (his last marriage) and future (his book) that he’s turned to alcoholism and uses an extensive knowledge of wine to mask it. I thought the movie was fantastic and completely not the standard Hollywood movie. There’s no tightly wrapped up conclusion. Jack ends up married but his friendship with Miles has been completely shaken, and he hasn’t seemingly learned anything from his experience. He fakes a car crash to explain his injuries to his fiancée. How long can he keep that up? Miles, on the other hand, may have accepted that maybe it is enough to find happiness with Maya instead of the wine bottle (though him drinking the good wine at the fast food restaurant isn’t necessarily the best sign) but the movie ends before he confronts her again. Life isn’t always wrapped up in a nice neat little bow. I like movies who actually understand that. Give the statue to Sideways.

Alright, wow this was a long post. Anyways, we’ll see how my picks do come Sunday. Until faithful readers:

“Half my life is over and I have nothing to show for it. Nothing. I'm a thumbprint on the window of a skyscraper. I'm a smudge of excrement on a tissue surging out to sea with a million tons of raw sewage.”
”See? Right there. Just what you just said. That is beautiful. 'A smudge of excrement... surging out to sea.'“
”Yeah.“
”I could never write that.“
” Neither could I, actually. I think it's Bukowsky.”